END OF DAY REVIEW 09/10/12

END OF DAY REVIEW 09/10/12

EURUSD

#1 Follows a breakout pullback (break below a range) and was a L1 short.
The 7 - 8 bars before it were small but they were all bear bars with openings that
were lower than the previous bars close. This is similiar to a spike phase and a L1
short following a bear spike is a reliable signal.

#2 At this point i was weary that the Long term bull Trendline (green line) was
near. I was flat, waiting for a failed attempt to break beyond the trendline. But
what i didnt realize was that i had unknowingly formed a bias in my mind. I only wanted
to go long, and was focusing on buy signals.


#3 Broke the Long term bull TL. The move down had too much strength. No Long should be
considered at this point. Only look to take a H2 after the H1 has clearly broken the
bear Trendline.

#4 Was an inside up bar. It had a good sized body with minimal tail. But its a very risky
long following such relentless selling. There could be traders waiting to short below
its low.

#5 was a H2 and an acceptable entry. However i feel that if i took this entry, 1 should beware
that the market might try to form one more down leg after the big sell off.
The next bar went a fraction of a pip above bar 5. It was unlikely that the stop
orders above bar 5 were triggered. the market sold off for 2 more bars and hesitated (doji).
At this point the formation of a trading range (or channel which is also similliar)
might ensue.

#6 was an inside down bar following 3 pushes up to the EMA. But the market just didnt want
to sell off. I would have been stopped out of the short if i had taken this entry.
After the 3 push failed, i should reassess the "always in" direction. There was a good H2 long signal 
nearing a Major Bull trendline and a 3 push pattern (wedge bear flag) to the EMA following a 7 bar
bear spike. Conflicting signals always hint of a possible trading range looming ahead.

#7 was an inside up bar following 3 pushes down. And it happened near the
Long term Bull TL. It was a reasonable long.

#8 was the 3rd bear in a row (spike) and most traders from the bar 7 long would have covered their longs
just in case the strong bears from earlier in the day start to reinstate their shorts. This is exactly
what happened here and the market started to sell off very quickly. At this point, i should stop
looking for long entries and instead recognize the fact that the bias is leaning more heavily
on the short side.

#9 was a strong move up to the EMA but any EMA test at this point should be viewed only as a short entry.
No matter how scary it looks, i have to force myself to take such trades especially whhen the market
seems to be screaming out the always in direction.

#10 was a L1 short at the EMA following a sharp spike down consisting of mostly good sized bear Trend bars
and only sideway pullbacks.


#11 Broke below the converging triangle (bear flag) and was a reasonable entry.