END OF DAY REVIEW 10/10/12
EURUSD
#1 the first bar of the day was a strong bear bar with no tail top and
bottom. It follows a double top bear flag in a bear trend so there
was sufficient reason to go short.
#2 was technically a H1 and a higher low. However, the trend was down and the
break of the bear TL was insufficient to warrant switching to long.
(The bear trend lasted for many bars so it was unlikely that the trend
extreme test would be so brief). Always in was still on the short side.
#3 was the first test of the EMA following the sell off from that double top pullback
(also a triple top).
#4 Was a huge outside up bar (it was 11pips tall and considered large in relation to
the recent bars). It also followed 3 pushes down and an overshoot of the bear trend
channel so bears will wait and see if this wedge will play out. If the market moves
higher, they will look for a failed EMA test, OR if the rally breaks the EMA, they
will look to short a Gap2 (L2 above the EMA).
#5 Was the gap 2 that the bears were waiting for. The sell off went on for about 30pips.
#6 Was a very important bar because it was an inside up bar and the 3rd push down following
an earlier TL break. (Green Line on the Zoomed out chart). Traders should be aware of the
possibility of it becoming a Lower low Major trend reversal.
#7 Was a double top but it was too small compared to the 3 push buy setup that formed
at bar 6.The market could still trend higher so it was not a logical short.
#8 formed a double top with the bar 5 bars before bar 5. At this point, it seemed like
there is a possibility of a large range forming and traders will watch to see if this
high will be exceeded.
#9 was a H2 following 3 pushes down. It was also a higher low and a Bull TL test (blue line)
#10 was yet another higher low after a 2 legged sell off to the bull Trend line.
#11 Nullified the possibility of a double top sell off (the last swing high just before bar 10)
But there was still the range high to overcome (orange line)
#12 was a H1 Long preceded by 3 consecutive bull bars and the 3rd higher low.
But, i feel that it was a setup that might not be so easy for me to
convince myself to take because it i would be buying high near to a resistance level. I would prefer to
wait for a break (to long) or a failed test and a lower high L2 (to short).
#13 finally broke that resistance level and rallied for 6 bars.
#14 was a breakout pullback that set up a H3 (and a wedge bull flag). The H1 10 bars earlier
formed after a 5 bar bear spike so a second entry would be more preferred. If i got stopped from that H2 (3 bars before bar 14) i would
have to force myself to re-enter at bar 14.
No comments:
Post a Comment