Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Trade 04_121112_Stopped out



Market was in a bull channel when i switched on the computer. I noticed that the market could not form 2 consecutive closes below the EMA for the past 30+ bars or so. I was looking to buy a test or more preferably an overshoot of the bottom of the channel.

This chance presented itself as the market formed the first strong close below the EMA and the first  break below the trend channel line. There was a good chance this first attempt to breakout will fail.
The bulls bought the close of the bear breakout bar all the way to the top, forming an inside up, 2 bar reversal and a double bottom with an earlier swing low.

Took the long for a test of the opposite side of the channel. Since its common for channels to break to one side then reverse to the opposite side and break out again and form a reversal, i thought i should be ready to close in any case the market forms a reversal signal from the opposite side of the channel.
However, when the market formed a bear bar following the 3 bar bull spike, i thought there should at least be a second push up before the market could reverse. I was wrong.. I watched as the market formed 2 bear bars then 3 then it went all the way to the other side of my signal bar and triggered my stop.
(Please ignore the Red dotted stop loss line on the chart below. It has nothing to do with this trade. This chart was printed late and that line actually belongs to a trade i took much later.) 




I think the main lesson to take from this trade is this :
I expected the strength of the 3 bar bull spike to translate to more buying (buyers above and below the first pullback bar), at least just a second push up to the last high. A second push that I could use to assess the strength of the rally and decide weather to hold or fold.
But the 3 bar bull spike was not a breakout spike so much as a sell vacuum. So it would not function as a breakout spike and find buyers above and below a pullback bar.
The strong sellers just didnt want to short when the market broke below the bottom of the channel because they knew they could look to short higher, possibly a break of the opposite side of the channel.
In the absence of sellers, the market raced higher to the point where the strong bears were willing to start shorting again.

Look out for traps like this in the future, especially when trading in channels. Always try to distinguish between breakout spikes and spikes that are caused by buy and sell vacuums.

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