Wednesday, 12 December 2012

Market Recap for 12th Dec 2012


Took 2 trades yesterday. Both entry bars boxed in green.
The earlier one was not really a good trade because i was entering in the middle of a range. The distance to the bar 2 high was less than 1 X  my risk. I could instead enter a buy limit order below the low of bar 3 since market has reversed 2 times earlier at the same area.

2nd trade was a buy limit order near the same area of support in the range.
I think the premise for the trade was quite valid but i could have decided to close my trade after the market went to make 2 attempts at the EMA and formed a bear bar. At this point the market might try to make one more push down especially after the 3 push Double top pullback (Bar 5, 6) that led to the sell off to support.
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Bar1 set up a H4 long in a tight bear channel ( bear channels often end with a H4)

Bar2 was the 3rd push up to resistance and also formed a Double top with the last swing high.A sell limit
or even a sell stop would be Ok since I stand to make more than 1 X risk to the bottom of the range.

Bar3 was big. No stop order should be used in this case since that would mean buying in the middle of a range. A buy limit at support or the last low would be a reasonable decision.

Bar4 was an Outside down bar at resistance. Bulls who were long from support should seriously consider closing here.

Bar5 was a Low2 short at resistance. It acted as a pullback and 2nd entry short from the earlier 3 push pattern.

Bar6 was a lower high pullback from the bar 5 entry.

Bar 7 was a second push up to the Ema. The first push was 2 bars earlier, the bar went up to the Ema then down on the next bar. The bear bar after bar 7 was a short entry after 2 failed attempts up however it was not an easy short because it was so near to support. Bears who shorted here were aware of the possibility of the market forming the 3rd push to complete a wedge buy setup.


Bar8 broke above the bear channel but the move up to bar 9 seemed more like a leg in a trading range then a trend. The bar before bar 8 was a small bull flag, 3 bars before bar 8 was a doji and 2 bars after bar 8 was another flag with a bear body. All this justified shorting bar 9 without actually waiting for a second entry despite the steep rally that preceded bar 9.

There was a gap between the close of bar 10 and the open of the bar following it. This gap was tested by bar 11. Smart traders probably anticipated this and placed buy limit orders at the gap.

Bar12 was a H2 long at the Ema. The bear bar before it set up the entry at 1 pip above its high.


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